One week from today, hundreds of drivers and crew will be loading into Road America to take on the 2024 SCCA® National Championship Runoffs® presented by Sunoco – and they’ll be on a mission, because the Runoffs is no ordinary race. For those who don’t know, this year marks the 60th anniversary of the winner-take-all title event where only the best of the best stand atop the podium. But while Runoffs qualifying kicks off on Oct 1 and runs through Oct. 3, with races happening Oct. 4-6, we’re so giddy with excitement that we can’t help but try to predict the outcome of all the races.
If you’ve ever seen the Runoffs, you’ll know this is a completely impossible task. Still, this week will be full of articles where we attempt to do exactly that.
Of the 26 classes competing for National Championships this year, two of the most difficult to predict are Spec Miata and Spec MX-5. These classes are – as the name implies – spec, meaning the cars are built to strict rulesets, thus requiring the drivers to pedal as fast as they can from flag to flag if they want to spray the Mazza sparkling wine come race day.
Spec Miata is such a close competition that at last year’s Runoffs, the gap between the first two cars crossing under the checkered flag was so indeterminably miniscule that dual champions were crowned. We would say that that won’t happen again, but Spec Miata races are always tight, so it’s more accurate to say that we’re surprised it hasn’t happened before.
You could say that Spec MX-5 is –quite literally – the next generation of Spec Miata. While Spec Miata uses the NA and NB Miata chassis, Spec MX-5 is exclusive to the NC. This is the first year Spec MX-5 drivers get to race for an SCCA National Championship – and a lot of racers want the honor of being the first in that record book.
So, with the caveat of the fact that predicting the winners of these two classes is impossible, let’s dive in. Then follow along all week as we have a go at predicting all of the other class wins, too.
Who Will Win Spec Miata?
At the best of times, the Spec Miata race is nearly impossible to predict. No one could have guessed that this class would produce the only too-close-to-call tie for a National Championship in SCCA history when Preston Pardus and Nicholas Bruni crossed the line in a dead heat last year.
Naturally, our choice to win this year is Preston Pardus. He has collected a Championship four times out of eight appearances at the Runoffs, including 2020 at Road America. But meaning no disrespect, you might get better odds of a correct choice using a blindfold and a dart board. Bruni will be back again looking for his next championship, as will the ever-growing list of past champions.
To help us sort through the list, we asked three-time STL champion and current Spec Miata Hoosier Racing Tire Super Tour points leader Danny Steyn to weigh in. While we didn’t pick Steyn for the win, his insight into the class and the drivers is truly invaluable.
"The talent pool in Spec Miata just gets deeper and deeper," Steyn says. "You start off with the Usual Suspects. That's Preston Pardus and the rest of the East Street gang including Jim Drago, Todd Buras, Rob Hines, Nicholas Bruni, and Brett Kowalski. Then you add in Tyler Brown at his home track, and the father-and-son pairing of Elivan and Ethan Goulart. You also have to add in the ever-growing contingent of young wheelmen that are nipping at the heels: Travis Wiley, Sean Varwig, Logan Stretch, Matt Novak, Bobby Gossett, Noah Harmon, and many more."
There's little doubt that some of the best competition in SCCA happens in Spec Miata. However, Steyn graciously failed to name himself and his drafting partner, 2022 second-place finisher Charles Mactutus, as potential winners. We see Steyn as someone who could easily spoil our podium prediction – but considering we see Mactutus as earning a spot on that podium, Steyn will need to get past his teammate to do so.
When asked about his own chances, Steyn said, "I really like my chances working with my awesome teammate Chuck Mactutus. He and I have proved that we can win against the best, and we have been at the front throughout the 2024 season. And never forget, it rains at Road America! For anyone to win, there is going to be some luck involved."
Podium Prediction: Spec Miata
1. Preston Pardus, No. 42 Danus Utilities/East Street Racing/Daytona 1/Best Price Trailers /G-LOC Brakes 2003 Mazda Miata (4 National Championships)
2. Todd Buras, No. 56 321 Motorsports 1999 Mazda Miata (1 National Championship)
3. Charles Mactutus, No. 66 OPM/Rossini/G-Loc 2002 Mazda Miata
Who Will Win Spec MX-5?
SCCA's newest Runoffs class is Spec MX-5 (SMX), designed to bring the 2006-’15 third-generation NC MX-5 Miata into its own. The class provides a home for the many retired cars from the professional MX-5 Cup series.
Leading this group is Justin Adakonis, and he's our choice to take the championship. He's a Runoffs rookie, but he's leading the Hoosier Super Tour points. Adakonis has been competing consistently through the year and appears to have eyes on the prize. Our choice for second place is Noah Harmon, who finished fourth and fifth in last year's demonstration races, but has picked up five podium finishes this year.
For third, we think Ethan Jacobs will earn the honor. Jacobs is a bit of a wildcard with mixed results this year, but when he and the car get in the groove, he's very fast.
Other wildcard contenders could be past Spec Miata driver Camden Gruber or 2020 T4 champion Michael Borden.
"Spec MX-5 race cars give drivers a lot of performance compared to the cost to build," Borden told Mazda Motorsports earlier this year. "The extra power over a Spec Miata from the 2.0L engine with about 170hp makes the car more enjoyable to drive, especially at tracks like Road America. I’m getting the best of both worlds with power closer to an MX-5 Cup Car and pricing closer to Spec Miata."
Podium Prediction: Spec MX-5
1. Justin Adakonis, No. 18 TKG Motorsports 2018 Mazda MX-5
2. Noah Harmon, No. 111, 2008 Mazda MX-5
3. Ethan Jacobs, No.199 Jacobs Design Homes/Mazda/Holiday Mazda/HRX 2009 Mazda MX-5
Catch the Action Live
Qualifying at the National Championship Runoffs takes place Oct. 1-3, with Hagerty Race Days falling on Oct. 4-6. You can keep up on all of the action by clicking on the Runoffs homepage, where you’ll find the driver entry list, the event schedule, and more.
Races will be broadcast live on Oct. 1-3 on SCCA’s YouTube channel, so be sure to subscribe to the page and ring that bell icon now to get notified when the race broadcasts begin.
Photo of Spec Miata racer Preston Pardus (left) by Jay Bonvouloir; photo of Justin Adakonis in Spec MX-5 (right) by Jeff Loewe
